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Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
Preview
10:15
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
7/24/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 22Jack Edwards Reserve
Big match
49%
Oakleigh Cannons
model favours
49%23%28%

South Melbourne score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons49%
×Draw23%
South Melbourne28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
1.79
South Melbourne
1.29

Oakleigh Cannons creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 89 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
South Melbourne
1.49

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
South Melbourne
1.15

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

South Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
72%
Oakleigh Cannons or South Melbourne
77%
Draw or South Melbourne
51%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
27%
South Melbourne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
83%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
53%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
26%
South Melbourne 1+ goals
72%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
37%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
64%
South Melbourne (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.79

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
49%
level
23%
South Melbourne scores more
28%

Oakleigh Cannons at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of South Melbourne’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 73% of South Melbourne’s matches
  • Oakleigh Cannons have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cannons
WDWWD
Melbourne
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oakleigh Cannons face South Melbourne (Victoria NPL)

Victoria NPL returns with Oakleigh Cannons hosting South Melbourne. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oakleigh Cannons host South Melbourne at Jack Edwards Reserve.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.