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Oakleigh Cannons vs Melbourne City — Australia Cup 2021

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne City
Melbourne Cityadvanced
8/13/2023Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 32Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons26%
×Draw22%
Melbourne City52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
1.31
Melbourne City
1.94

Melbourne City creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.80
Melbourne City
1.67

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.20
Melbourne City
0.83

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
48%
Oakleigh Cannons or Melbourne City
78%
Draw or Melbourne City
74%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
11%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
73%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
38%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
14%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
86%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
58%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
33%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.80 + Melbourne City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Melbourne City attack 1.67 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
26%
level
22%
Melbourne City scores more
52%

Melbourne City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Oakleigh Cannons 2–3 Melbourne City

Melbourne City beat Oakleigh Cannons 3-2 in Australia Cup on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.