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Oakleigh Cannons vs Macarthur — Australia Cup 2021

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Macarthur
Macarthuradvanced
9/14/2022Australia CupAustralia Cup · Semi-finalsJack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons18%
×Draw18%
Macarthur63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
1.27
Macarthur
2.46

Macarthur creates 94% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.80
Macarthur
2.73

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.20
Macarthur
0.73

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Macarthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
37%
Oakleigh Cannons or Macarthur
82%
Draw or Macarthur
82%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
7%
Macarthur wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
72%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
36%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
14%
Macarthur 1+ goals
91%
Macarthur 2+ goals
70%
Macarthur 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
23%
Macarthur (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Macarthur away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.80 + Macarthur defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Macarthur attack 2.73 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
18%
level
18%
Macarthur scores more
63%

Macarthur at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Oakleigh Cannons 2–5 Macarthur

Macarthur beat Oakleigh Cannons 5-2 in Australia Cup on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.