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Oakleigh Cannons vs Eastern Lions — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
CANC
05:15
Eastern Lions
Eastern Lions
8/15/2020Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 9Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons69%
×Draw17%
Eastern Lions13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
2.45
Eastern Lions
0.98

Oakleigh Cannons creates 150% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 26 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Eastern Lions
0.88

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Eastern Lions
2.46

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Eastern Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
87%
Oakleigh Cannons or Eastern Lions
83%
Draw or Eastern Lions
31%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
47%
Eastern Lions wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
91%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
70%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
44%
Eastern Lions 1+ goals
62%
Eastern Lions 2+ goals
26%
Eastern Lions 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
84%
Eastern Lions (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Eastern Lions away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Eastern Lions defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.45

Eastern Lions attack 0.88 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
69%
level
17%
Eastern Lions scores more
13%

Oakleigh Cannons at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oakleigh Cannons vs Eastern Lions — Match Preview

Oakleigh Cannons face Eastern Lions on August 15, 2020 in this Victoria NPL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oakleigh Cannons host Eastern Lions at Jack Edwards Reserve.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.