Oakland Roots 2–0 San Diego Loyal: Result & Stats

Oakland Roots

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Diego Loyal

5/28/2023

USL Championship · Round 14Pioneer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Oakland Roots35%

×Draw26%

San Diego Loyal39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oakland RootsExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Loyal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.37

Oakland Roots

1.29

San Diego Loyal

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 59 away

1.13

creates per match

1.54

1.20

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Oakland Roots

1.13

San Diego Loyal

1.54

allows per match

Oakland Roots

1.20

San Diego Loyal

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oakland Roots+0.00on par

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland Roots ↓

San Diego Loyal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oakland Roots or draw

61%

Oakland Roots or San Diego Loyal

74%

Draw or San Diego Loyal

65%

Winning margin

Oakland Roots wins by 2+

15%

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oakland Roots 1+ goals

72%

Oakland Roots 2+ goals

37%

Oakland Roots 3+ goals

14%

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

75%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

40%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oakland Roots (draw refunded)

48%

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland Roots at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland Roots attack 1.13 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Oakland Roots defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oakland Roots scores more

35%

level

26%

San Diego Loyal scores more

39%

San Diego Loyal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Oakland Roots 2–0 San Diego Loyal

Oakland Roots beat San Diego Loyal 2-0 in USL Championship on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Pioneer Stadium in Hayward, California.

Oakland Roots vs San Diego Loyal — USL Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL Championship: Oakland Roots 2–0 San Diego Loyal