Oakland Roots 2–2 Rio Grande Valley: Result & Stats

Oakland Roots

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Rio Grande Valley

6/12/2022

USL Championship · Round 19Laney Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Oakland Roots41%

×Draw26%

Rio Grande Valley33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oakland RootsExpected goals in this matchRio Grande Valley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.23

Oakland Roots

1.40

Rio Grande Valley

1.23

Oakland Roots creates 14% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 93 away

1.13

creates per match

1.25

1.20

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Oakland Roots

1.13

Rio Grande Valley

1.25

allows per match

Oakland Roots

1.20

Rio Grande Valley

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oakland Roots+0.00on par

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland Roots ↓

Rio Grande Valley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oakland Roots or draw

67%

Oakland Roots or Rio Grande Valley

74%

Draw or Rio Grande Valley

59%

Winning margin

Oakland Roots wins by 2+

19%

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oakland Roots 1+ goals

75%

Oakland Roots 2+ goals

41%

Oakland Roots 3+ goals

17%

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

71%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

35%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oakland Roots (draw refunded)

55%

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland Roots at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland Roots attack 1.13 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Oakland Roots defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oakland Roots scores more

41%

level

26%

Rio Grande Valley scores more

33%

Oakland Roots at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oakland Roots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff