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Oakland Roots vs Austin Bold — USL Championship 2018

Oakland Roots
Oakland Roots
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austin Bold
Austin Bold
6/27/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 15Las Positas College Turf Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Oakland Roots44%
×Draw26%
Austin Bold30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakland Roots
1.46
Austin Bold
1.15

Oakland Roots creates 27% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 41 away

creates per match

Oakland Roots
1.13
Austin Bold
1.10

allows per match

Oakland Roots
1.20
Austin Bold
1.78

finishing

Oakland Roots+0.00on par
Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland Roots ↓

Austin Bold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oakland Roots or draw
70%
Oakland Roots or Austin Bold
74%
Draw or Austin Bold
56%

Winning margin

Oakland Roots wins by 2+
22%
Austin Bold wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oakland Roots 1+ goals
77%
Oakland Roots 2+ goals
43%
Oakland Roots 3+ goals
18%
Austin Bold 1+ goals
68%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
32%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oakland Roots (draw refunded)
60%
Austin Bold (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland Roots at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland Roots attack 1.13 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + Oakland Roots defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oakland Roots scores more
44%
level
26%
Austin Bold scores more
30%

Oakland Roots at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oakland Roots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Oakland Roots 0–0 Austin Bold

Oakland Roots and Austin Bold drew 0-0 in USL Championship on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Las Positas College Turf Field in Livermore, California.