Oakland County vs Grand Rapids

Oakland County

PST

23:00

Grand Rapids

6/5/2020

USL League Two · Round 20Clawson Stadium (Clawson, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Oakland County26%

×Draw20%

Grand Rapids55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oakland CountyExpected goals in this matchGrand Rapids

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.39

Oakland County

1.61

Grand Rapids

2.39

Grand Rapids creates 48% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

2.08

creates per match

2.86

1.92

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Oakland County

2.08

Grand Rapids

2.86

allows per match

Oakland County

1.92

Grand Rapids

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oakland County+0.00on par

Grand Rapids+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland County ↓

Grand Rapids →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Oakland County or draw

45%

Oakland County or Grand Rapids

80%

Draw or Grand Rapids

74%

Winning margin

Oakland County wins by 2+

12%

Grand Rapids wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Oakland County 1+ goals

80%

Oakland County 2+ goals

48%

Oakland County 3+ goals

22%

Grand Rapids 1+ goals

91%

Grand Rapids 2+ goals

69%

Grand Rapids 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Oakland County (draw refunded)

32%

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland County at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

Grand Rapids away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland County attack 2.08 + Grand Rapids defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.61

Grand Rapids attack 2.86 + Oakland County defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oakland County scores more

26%

level

20%

Grand Rapids scores more

55%

Grand Rapids at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff