Grand Rapids 3–2 Oakland County: Result & Stats

Grand Rapids

FT

3 – 2

Oakland County

7/7/2021

USL League Two · Round 46Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grand Rapids51%

×Draw22%

Oakland County28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grand RapidsExpected goals in this matchOakland County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.46

Grand Rapids

2.04

Oakland County

1.46

Grand Rapids creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 40 away

2.14

creates per match

1.63

1.29

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Grand Rapids

2.14

Oakland County

1.63

allows per match

Grand Rapids

1.29

Oakland County

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par

Oakland County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

Oakland County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw

72%

Grand Rapids or Oakland County

78%

Draw or Oakland County

49%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+

30%

Oakland County wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals

87%

Grand Rapids 2+ goals

60%

Grand Rapids 3+ goals

33%

Oakland County 1+ goals

77%

Oakland County 2+ goals

43%

Oakland County 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)

65%

Oakland County (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Oakland County away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + Oakland County defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.04

Oakland County attack 1.63 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Grand Rapids scores more

51%

level

22%

Oakland County scores more

28%

Grand Rapids at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Grand Rapids 3–2 Oakland County

Grand Rapids beat Oakland County 3-2 in USL League Two on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1 in Kentwood.

Grand Rapids vs Oakland County — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Grand Rapids 3–2 Oakland County