O'Higgins 2–0 Millonarios: Result & Stats

O'Higgins

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Millonarios

F. Gonzalez 83'

A. Castillo 12'

4/8/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

O'Higgins56%

×Draw28%

Millonarios16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

O'HigginsExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.61

O'Higgins

1.39

Millonarios

0.61

O'Higgins creates 128% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.22

0.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

O'Higgins

1.33

Millonarios

1.22

allows per match

O'Higgins

0.00

Millonarios

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

O'Higgins+0.00on par

Millonarios+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

O'Higgins ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

O'Higgins or draw

84%

O'Higgins or Millonarios

72%

Draw or Millonarios

44%

Winning margin

O'Higgins wins by 2+

28%

Millonarios wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

O'Higgins 1+ goals

75%

O'Higgins 2+ goals

40%

O'Higgins 3+ goals

16%

Millonarios 1+ goals

46%

Millonarios 2+ goals

13%

Millonarios 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

O'Higgins (draw refunded)

77%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

O'Higgins at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

O'Higgins attack 1.33 + Millonarios defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Millonarios attack 1.22 + O'Higgins defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

O'Higgins scores more

56%

level

28%

Millonarios scores more

16%

O'Higgins at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "O'Higgins will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

F. Gonzalez

O'Higgins · F

8.3

Match Events

12'

A. Castillo↳ F. Gonzalez

52'

Sebastián del Castillo

54'

62'

67'

67'

71'

71'

D. Banguero← S. Valencia

71'

S. Vega← M. Garcia

74'

M. Samuel← S. Viveros

76'

Edgar Elizalde

78'

B. Rabello← M. Maturana

78'

B. Yanez← Martin Sarrafiore

82'

B. D. Castro Espinosa← D. Silva

83'

F. Gonzalez↳ B. Yanez

85'

T. Vecino← A. Castillo

89'

B. Rojas← F. Gonzalez

89'

G. Pinto← J. Leiva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

O'HigginsMillonarios

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots7

1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.42

7Corners6

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots7

6On Target3

4Off Target3

1Blocked1

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

327Total Passes367

264Accurate Passes294

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.59Goals Prevented-0.59

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2