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O'Higgins vs Colo Colo — Primera División 2018

O'Higgins
O'Higgins
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
2/21/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 4Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

O'Higgins34%
×Draw27%
Colo Colo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

O'Higgins
1.19
Colo Colo
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 126 away

creates per match

O'Higgins
1.24
Colo Colo
1.35

allows per match

O'Higgins
1.25
Colo Colo
1.14

finishing

O'Higgins+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

O'Higgins ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

O'Higgins or draw
61%
O'Higgins or Colo Colo
73%
Draw or Colo Colo
66%

Winning margin

O'Higgins wins by 2+
14%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

O'Higgins 1+ goals
70%
O'Higgins 2+ goals
33%
O'Higgins 3+ goals
12%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
73%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
37%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

O'Higgins (draw refunded)
46%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

O'Higgins at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.25 · 128 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

O'Higgins attack 1.24 + Colo Colo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Colo Colo attack 1.35 + O'Higgins defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

O'Higgins scores more
34%
level
27%
Colo Colo scores more
39%

Colo Colo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: O'Higgins 0–1 Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat O'Higgins 1-0 in Primera División on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Teniente in Rancagua.