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Nzoia Sugar vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
CANC
00:00
Tusker
Tusker
3/18/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 25Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Nzoia Sugar30%
×Draw29%
Tusker41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
1.00
Tusker
1.23

Tusker creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 143 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.00
Tusker
1.33

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.13
Tusker
1.01

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
59%
Nzoia Sugar or Tusker
71%
Draw or Tusker
70%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
11%
Tusker wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
63%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
26%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
8%
Tusker 1+ goals
71%
Tusker 2+ goals
35%
Tusker 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
42%
Tusker (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 111 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.00 + Tusker defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tusker attack 1.33 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
30%
level
29%
Tusker scores more
41%

Tusker at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nzoia Sugar host Tusker

March 18, 2020: Nzoia Sugar take on Tusker in FKF Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nzoia Sugar host Tusker at Sudi Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.