Nzoia Sugar 1–1 Talanta: Result & Stats

Nzoia Sugar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Talanta

3/10/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 22Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nzoia Sugar37%

×Draw28%

Talanta35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nzoia SugarExpected goals in this matchTalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.15

Nzoia Sugar

1.19

Talanta

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 69 away

0.96

creates per match

1.17

1.12

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar

0.96

Talanta

1.17

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar

1.12

Talanta

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Talanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw

65%

Nzoia Sugar or Talanta

72%

Draw or Talanta

63%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+

16%

Talanta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals

70%

Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals

33%

Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals

12%

Talanta 1+ goals

68%

Talanta 2+ goals

32%

Talanta 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)

51%

Talanta (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Talanta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + Talanta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Talanta attack 1.17 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more

37%

level

28%

Talanta scores more

35%

Nzoia Sugar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff