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Nzoia Sugar vs Shabana — FKF Premier League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Shabana
Shabana
1/14/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nzoia Sugar35%
×Draw29%
Shabana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
1.08
Shabana
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 51 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.96
Shabana
1.08

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.12
Shabana
1.20

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
Shabana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Shabana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
64%
Nzoia Sugar or Shabana
71%
Draw or Shabana
65%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
14%
Shabana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
66%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
29%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
10%
Shabana 1+ goals
67%
Shabana 2+ goals
30%
Shabana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
49%
Shabana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Shabana away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + Shabana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Shabana attack 1.08 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
35%
level
29%
Shabana scores more
36%

Shabana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nzoia Sugar vs Shabana

Shabana beat Nzoia Sugar 5-2 in FKF Premier League on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sudi Stadium in Bungoma.