Nzoia Sugar 1–1 Posta Rangers FC: Result & Stats

Nzoia Sugar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Posta Rangers FC

2/18/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 14Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Nzoia Sugar34%

×Draw30%

Posta Rangers FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nzoia SugarExpected goals in this matchPosta Rangers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.08

Nzoia Sugar

1.05

Posta Rangers FC

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 149 away

0.96

creates per match

1.03

1.12

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar

0.96

Posta Rangers FC

1.03

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar

1.12

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Posta Rangers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw

64%

Nzoia Sugar or Posta Rangers FC

70%

Draw or Posta Rangers FC

66%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+

13%

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals

65%

Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals

28%

Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals

9%

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

66%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

29%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)

49%

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more

34%

level

30%

Posta Rangers FC scores more

36%

Posta Rangers FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff