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Nzoia Sugar vs Bandari — FKF Premier League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bandari
Bandari
2/17/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Nzoia Sugar33%
×Draw32%
Bandari35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
0.94
Bandari
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 145 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.96
Bandari
0.81

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.12
Bandari
0.92

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
Bandari+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Bandari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
65%
Nzoia Sugar or Bandari
68%
Draw or Bandari
67%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
12%
Bandari wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
61%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
24%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
7%
Bandari 1+ goals
62%
Bandari 2+ goals
25%
Bandari 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
49%
Bandari (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Bandari away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.92 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + Bandari defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Bandari attack 0.81 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
33%
level
32%
Bandari scores more
35%

Bandari at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nzoia Sugar vs Bandari

Bandari beat Nzoia Sugar 2-1 in FKF Premier League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sudi Stadium in Bungoma.