Nyva Vinnytsya 1–1 Khust City: Result & Stats

Nyva Vinnytsya

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Khust City

M. Zhukov 44'

P. Lutsiv 66'

9/3/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 1Tsentralnyi miskyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nyva Vinnytsya38%

×Draw27%

Khust City35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva VinnytsyaExpected goals in this matchKhust City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.25

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.32

Khust City

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 9 away

1.53

creates per match

1.33

1.16

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.53

Khust City

1.33

allows per match

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.16

Khust City

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Vinnytsya ↓

Khust City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nyva Vinnytsya or draw

65%

Nyva Vinnytsya or Khust City

73%

Draw or Khust City

62%

Winning margin

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+

17%

Khust City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals

73%

Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals

38%

Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals

15%

Khust City 1+ goals

71%

Khust City 2+ goals

36%

Khust City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)

52%

Khust City (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Vinnytsya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.53 + Khust City defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.32

Khust City attack 1.33 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more

38%

level

27%

Khust City scores more

35%

Nyva Vinnytsya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nyva Vinnytsya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

M. Zhukov

59'

A. Strilets← B. Pavlych

66'

P. Lutsiv

72'

M. Gavryk← I. Bilyk

77'

V. Polishchuk← V. Mulyk

78'

M. Pylyp← I. Povkhan

Nyva

Khust

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: O. Ostapenko

72'▲M. Gavryk←▼I. Bilyk

77'▲V. Polishchuk←▼V. Mulyk

Nyva Vinnytsya substitutes

GavrykPolishchuk

Manager: V. Tsytkin

59'▲A. Strilets←▼B. Pavlych

78'▲M. Pylyp←▼I. Povkhan

Khust City substitutes

StriletsPylyp