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Nyva Vinnytsya vs Kalush — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
CANC
00:00
Kalush
Kalush
5/7/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Nyva Vinnytsya34%
×Draw28%
Kalush38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.11
Kalush
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 10 away

creates per match

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.53
Kalush
1.20

allows per match

Nyva Vinnytsya
1.16
Kalush
0.70

finishing

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par
Kalush+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Vinnytsya ↓

Kalush →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nyva Vinnytsya or draw
62%
Nyva Vinnytsya or Kalush
72%
Draw or Kalush
66%

Winning margin

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
14%
Kalush wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
67%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
30%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
10%
Kalush 1+ goals
69%
Kalush 2+ goals
33%
Kalush 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
48%
Kalush (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Vinnytsya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

Kalush away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.53 + Kalush defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.11

Kalush attack 1.20 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
34%
level
28%
Kalush scores more
38%

Kalush at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kalush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nyva Vinnytsya vs Kalush — Match Preview

Nyva Vinnytsya face Kalush on May 7, 2021 in this Druha Liga - Group A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.