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Nyva Ternopil vs Kramatorsk — Persha Liga 2019

Nyva Ternopil
Nyva Ternopil
CANC
14:00
Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
5/21/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 30Stadion Mis'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Nyva Ternopil46%
×Draw28%
Kramatorsk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Ternopil
1.33
Kramatorsk
0.93

Nyva Ternopil creates 43% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 40 away

creates per match

Nyva Ternopil
1.08
Kramatorsk
0.85

allows per match

Nyva Ternopil
1.01
Kramatorsk
1.57

finishing

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par
Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Ternopil ↓

Kramatorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nyva Ternopil or draw
74%
Nyva Ternopil or Kramatorsk
72%
Draw or Kramatorsk
54%

Winning margin

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+
21%
Kramatorsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals
74%
Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals
38%
Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals
15%
Kramatorsk 1+ goals
61%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
24%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)
64%
Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Ternopil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

Kramatorsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Ternopil attack 1.08 + Kramatorsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kramatorsk attack 0.85 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nyva Ternopil scores more
46%
level
28%
Kramatorsk scores more
26%

Nyva Ternopil at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nyva Ternopil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nyva Ternopil face Kramatorsk (Persha Liga)

Persha Liga returns with Nyva Ternopil hosting Kramatorsk. Match starts May 21, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Nyva Ternopil host Kramatorsk at Stadion Mis'kyj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.