Nyva Buzova 2–0 Viktoriya Mykolaivka

Nyva Buzova

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

V. Nekhtii 80'

M. Vechurko 39'

4/21/2024

Persha Liga · Championship Round - 5Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova35%

×Draw28%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchViktoriya Mykolaivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.24

Nyva Buzova

1.17

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 41 away

1.07

creates per match

1.05

1.43

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

1.07

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

1.05

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

1.43

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Viktoriya Mykolaivka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Viktoriya Mykolaivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

62%

Nyva Buzova or Viktoriya Mykolaivka

72%

Draw or Viktoriya Mykolaivka

65%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

14%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

69%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

33%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

11%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1+ goals

71%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2+ goals

35%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

48%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Viktoriya Mykolaivka away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Viktoriya Mykolaivka defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Viktoriya Mykolaivka attack 1.05 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

35%

level

28%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka scores more

38%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Viktoriya Mykolaivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Y. Zakharevich

39'

M. Vechurko

46'

M. Chehlov← S. Sharai

46'

O. Savchenko← S. Kopyl

53'

M. Vechurko

62'

A. Baydal

63'

M. Cheglov

63'

D. Korkishko

67'

K. Matvieiev← M. Vechurko

67'

V. Tymenko← D. Falkovskyi

71'

S. Mashtalir← O. Lebedenko

71'

V. Shavrin← A. Baidal

78'

N. Tepliakov← D. Korkishko

80'

V. Nekhtii

82'

A. Shpyrionok← N. Nych

90+1'

Y. Misyura

Nyva

Viktoriya

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Loktionov

67'▲K. Matvieiev←▼M. Vechurko

67'▲V. Tymenko←▼D. Falkovskyi

78'▲N. Tepliakov←▼D. Korkishko

Nyva Buzova substitutes

MatvieievTymenkoTepliakovMacheliukKulykSerdiukKalininMihunovNikolyshynLiopka

Manager: A. Bezsmertnyi

46'▲M. Chehlov←▼S. Sharai

46'▲O. Savchenko←▼S. Kopyl

71'▲S. Mashtalir←▼O. Lebedenko

71'▲V. Shavrin←▼A. Baidal

82'▲A. Shpyrionok←▼N. Nych

Viktoriya Mykolaivka substitutes

ChehlovSavchenkoMashtalirShavrinShpyrionokShelikhovBoikoYevpakKurelekh

Persha Liga: Nyva Buzova 2–0 Viktoriya Mykolaivka

Nyva Buzova beat Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2-0 in Persha Liga on April 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Vechurko (39'), V. Nekhtii (80').

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.

Nyva Buzova vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Persha Liga: Nyva Buzova 2–0 Viktoriya Mykolaivka