Nyva Buzova 2–0 Nyva Vinnytsya: Result & Stats

Nyva Buzova

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nyva Vinnytsya

I. Sklyarenko 44'

V. Tymenko 21'

10/8/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 6Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nyva Buzova62%

×Draw21%

Nyva Vinnytsya17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchNyva Vinnytsya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.94

Nyva Buzova

2.01

Nyva Vinnytsya

0.94

Nyva Buzova creates 114% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 76 away

2.56

creates per match

1.32

0.56

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

2.56

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.32

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

0.56

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Nyva Vinnytsya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

83%

Nyva Buzova or Nyva Vinnytsya

79%

Draw or Nyva Vinnytsya

38%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

38%

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

87%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

59%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

32%

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals

61%

Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals

24%

Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

79%

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Nyva Vinnytsya away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 2.56 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.01

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.32 + Nyva Buzova defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

62%

level

21%

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more

17%

Nyva Buzova at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

V. Tymenko

44'

I. Sklyarenko

57'

Y. Zakharevych← Y. Mykolayuk

73'

B. Semenets← D. Skepskyi

78'

D. Eremenko← V. Tymenko

78'

D. Zagalevych← S. Zuevych

79'

Y. Kostyuk← M. Zhukov

89'

89'

Nyva

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Tymenko

▼

Mykolayuk

Manager: S. Karpenko

57'▲Y. Zakharevych←▼Y. Mykolayuk

73'▲B. Semenets←▼D. Skepskyi

78'▲D. Eremenko←▼V. Tymenko

78'▲D. Zagalevych←▼S. Zuevych

Nyva Buzova substitutes

ZakharevychSemenetsEremenkoZagalevych

Manager: O. Ostapenko

79'▲Y. Kostyuk←▼M. Zhukov

89'▲M. Gavryk←▼O. Shvets

89'▲V. Mulyk←▼A. Ornat

Nyva Vinnytsya substitutes

KostyukGavrykMulyk