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Nyva Buzova vs Kremin' II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kremin' II
Kremin' II
10/1/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 5Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nyva Buzova85%
×Draw11%
Kremin' II4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Buzova
2.80
Kremin' II
0.45

Nyva Buzova creates 522% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Nyva Buzova
2.56
Kremin' II
0.33

allows per match

Nyva Buzova
0.56
Kremin' II
3.05

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par
Kremin' II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Kremin' II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–17%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw
96%
Nyva Buzova or Kremin' II
89%
Draw or Kremin' II
15%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
66%
Kremin' II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
94%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
76%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
52%
Kremin' II 1+ goals
36%
Kremin' II 2+ goals
8%
Kremin' II 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
96%
Kremin' II (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Kremin' II away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 2.56 + Kremin' II defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.80

Kremin' II attack 0.33 + Nyva Buzova defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more
85%
level
11%
Kremin' II scores more
4%

Nyva Buzova at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Nyva Buzova 3–0 Kremin' II

Nyva Buzova beat Kremin' II 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.