Nyva Buzova 0–3 Inhulets: Result & Stats

Nyva Buzova

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Inhulets

Y. Kvasov 84'

A. Sitalo 75', 36'

5/4/2024

Persha Liga · Championship Round - 7Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova25%

×Draw27%

Inhulets48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchInhulets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.39

Nyva Buzova

0.92

Inhulets

1.39

Inhulets creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

1.07

creates per match

1.34

1.43

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

1.07

Inhulets

1.34

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

1.43

Inhulets

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Inhulets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Inhulets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

52%

Nyva Buzova or Inhulets

73%

Draw or Inhulets

75%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

9%

Inhulets wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

60%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

23%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

7%

Inhulets 1+ goals

75%

Inhulets 2+ goals

40%

Inhulets 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

34%

Inhulets (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Inhulets away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Inhulets defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Inhulets attack 1.34 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

25%

level

27%

Inhulets scores more

48%

Inhulets at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inhulets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

A. Sitalo

60'

D. Kulyk← V. Tymenko

60'

O. Mihunov← Y. Zakharevych

64'

Y. Misyura

68'

S. Panasenko← O. Piatov

75'

A. Sitalo

76'

Y. Chepurnenko← K. Matvieiev

78'

I. Hadzhuk← A. Sitalo

78'

V. Bilotserkovets← O. Kozak

78'

Y. Kvasov← V. Sad

84'

Y. Kvasov

90'

A. Macheliuk← R. Hahun

90'

O. Kalinin← N. Tepliakov

90+2'

V. Sydorenko← Y. Bohunov

Nyva

Inhulets

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Loktionov

60'▲D. Kulyk←▼V. Tymenko

60'▲O. Mihunov←▼Y. Zakharevych

76'▲Y. Chepurnenko←▼K. Matvieiev

90'▲A. Macheliuk←▼R. Hahun

90'▲O. Kalinin←▼N. Tepliakov

Nyva Buzova substitutes

KulykMihunovChepurnenkoMacheliukKalininTkachenkoSerdiukNikolyshynLiopka

Manager: V. Lupashko

68'▲S. Panasenko←▼O. Piatov

78'▲I. Hadzhuk←▼A. Sitalo

78'▲V. Bilotserkovets←▼O. Kozak

78'▲Y. Kvasov←▼V. Sad

90+2'▲V. Sydorenko←▼Y. Bohunov

Inhulets substitutes

PanasenkoHadzhukBilotserkovetsKvasovSydorenkoRomanchenkoVieiraMohylnyiRezepovVoskonyan