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Nyuki vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Nyuki
Nyuki
FT
1 – 1
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
11/20/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nyuki38%
×Draw25%
Bukavu Dawa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyuki
1.48
Bukavu Dawa
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Nyuki
1.00
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Nyuki
2.08
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Nyuki+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyuki ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nyuki or draw
63%
Nyuki or Bukavu Dawa
75%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
62%

Winning margin

Nyuki wins by 2+
18%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nyuki 1+ goals
77%
Nyuki 2+ goals
43%
Nyuki 3+ goals
19%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
77%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
42%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nyuki (draw refunded)
51%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyuki at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyuki attack 1.00 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Nyuki defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nyuki scores more
38%
level
25%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
37%

Nyuki at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nyuki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nyuki 1 – 1 Bukavu Dawa

Nyuki and Bukavu Dawa drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité de Virunga in Goma.