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Hévíz vs Videoton II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Hévíz
Hévíz
FT
2 – 2
Videoton II
Videoton II
9/15/2019NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 7Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hévíz39%
×Draw25%
Videoton II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hévíz
1.51
Videoton II
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 82 away

creates per match

Hévíz
1.40
Videoton II
1.10

allows per match

Hévíz
1.80
Videoton II
1.63

finishing

Hévíz+0.00on par
Videoton II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hévíz ↓

Videoton II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hévíz or draw
64%
Hévíz or Videoton II
75%
Draw or Videoton II
61%

Winning margin

Hévíz wins by 2+
19%
Videoton II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hévíz 1+ goals
78%
Hévíz 2+ goals
44%
Hévíz 3+ goals
19%
Videoton II 1+ goals
77%
Videoton II 2+ goals
42%
Videoton II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hévíz (draw refunded)
52%
Videoton II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hévíz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Videoton II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hévíz attack 1.40 + Videoton II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Videoton II attack 1.10 + Hévíz defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hévíz scores more
39%
level
25%
Videoton II scores more
36%

Hévíz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hévíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

NB III - Southwest: Hévíz 2–2 Videoton II

Hévíz and Videoton II drew 2-2 in NB III - Southwest on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya in Hévíz.