Nyköping 4–0 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK: Result & Stats

Nyköping

FT

4 – 0

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

8/4/2021

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 29Rosvalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nyköping67%

×Draw17%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NyköpingExpected goals in this matchTrosa-Vagnhärad SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.25

Nyköping

2.70

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.25

Nyköping creates 116% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 34 away

2.64

creates per match

1.26

1.24

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Nyköping

2.64

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.26

allows per match

Nyköping

1.24

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyköping+0.00on par

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyköping ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Nyköping or draw

84%

Nyköping or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

83%

Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

33%

Winning margin

Nyköping wins by 2+

46%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nyköping 1+ goals

93%

Nyköping 2+ goals

75%

Nyköping 3+ goals

50%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals

71%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals

36%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nyköping (draw refunded)

81%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyköping at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyköping attack 2.64 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.70

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Nyköping defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nyköping scores more

67%

level

17%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more

16%

Nyköping at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nyköping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff