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Nyköping vs Ostersunds FK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Nyköping
Nyköping
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
10/15/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundRosvalla IP Konstgräs A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nyköping19%
×Draw21%
Ostersunds FK60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyköping
1.03
Ostersunds FK
2.03

Ostersunds FK creates 97% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nyköping
1.00
Ostersunds FK
1.31

allows per match

Nyköping
2.75
Ostersunds FK
1.06

finishing

Nyköping+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyköping ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Nyköping or draw
40%
Nyköping or Ostersunds FK
79%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
81%

Winning margin

Nyköping wins by 2+
7%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Nyköping 1+ goals
64%
Nyköping 2+ goals
28%
Nyköping 3+ goals
9%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
87%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
60%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Nyköping (draw refunded)
24%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyköping at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyköping attack 1.00 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + Nyköping defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nyköping scores more
19%
level
21%
Ostersunds FK scores more
60%

Ostersunds FK at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Nyköping 2–4 Ostersunds FK

Ostersunds FK beat Nyköping 4-2 in Svenska Cupen on October 15, 2020.

The match was played at Rosvalla IP Konstgräs A in Nyköping.