Nyköping 0–1 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

Nyköping

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orebro SK

8/21/2019

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundRosvalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nyköping16%

×Draw19%

Orebro SK65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NyköpingExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.30

Nyköping

1.07

Orebro SK

2.30

Orebro SK creates 115% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

1.85

2.75

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Nyköping

1.00

Orebro SK

1.85

allows per match

Nyköping

2.75

Orebro SK

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyköping+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyköping ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Nyköping or draw

35%

Nyköping or Orebro SK

81%

Draw or Orebro SK

84%

Winning margin

Nyköping wins by 2+

6%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Nyköping 1+ goals

66%

Nyköping 2+ goals

29%

Nyköping 3+ goals

9%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

90%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

67%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Nyköping (draw refunded)

20%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyköping at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyköping attack 1.00 + Orebro SK defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Orebro SK attack 1.85 + Nyköping defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nyköping scores more

16%

level

19%

Orebro SK scores more

65%

Orebro SK at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff