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Nyköping vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Nyköping
Nyköping
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
10/1/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 24Rosvalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nyköping63%
×Draw18%
IFK Eskilstuna19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyköping
2.53
IFK Eskilstuna
1.33

Nyköping creates 90% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 60 away

creates per match

Nyköping
2.64
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Nyköping
1.24
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Nyköping+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyköping ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Nyköping or draw
81%
Nyköping or IFK Eskilstuna
82%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
37%

Winning margin

Nyköping wins by 2+
42%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nyköping 1+ goals
92%
Nyköping 2+ goals
71%
Nyköping 3+ goals
46%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
74%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
38%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nyköping (draw refunded)
77%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyköping at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyköping attack 2.64 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.53

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Nyköping defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nyköping scores more
63%
level
18%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
19%

Nyköping at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nyköping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyköping vs IFK Eskilstuna

Nyköping beat IFK Eskilstuna 5-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Rosvalla IP in Nyköping.