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Nyköping vs Degerfors IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Nyköping
Nyköping
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
8/21/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundRosvalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nyköping17%
×Draw17%
Degerfors IF65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyköping
1.32
Degerfors IF
2.67

Degerfors IF creates 102% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nyköping
1.00
Degerfors IF
2.59

allows per match

Nyköping
2.75
Degerfors IF
1.65

finishing

Nyköping+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyköping ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Nyköping or draw
35%
Nyköping or Degerfors IF
83%
Draw or Degerfors IF
83%

Winning margin

Nyköping wins by 2+
7%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Nyköping 1+ goals
73%
Nyköping 2+ goals
38%
Nyköping 3+ goals
15%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
93%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
74%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Nyköping (draw refunded)
21%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyköping at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyköping attack 1.00 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + Nyköping defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nyköping scores more
17%
level
17%
Degerfors IF scores more
65%

Degerfors IF at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyköping vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat Nyköping 4-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Rosvalla IP in Nyköping.