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Nykobing FC vs Ishøj — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ishøj
Ishøj
M. Hansen 69'
M. Azaquoun 52'
J. Moussa 35'
5/2/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 3Lollands Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nykobing FC36%
×Draw25%
Ishøj38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.36
Ishøj
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
0.94
Ishøj
1.31

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.50
Ishøj
1.78

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
Ishøj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

Ishøj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
62%
Nykobing FC or Ishøj
75%
Draw or Ishøj
64%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
16%
Ishøj wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
74%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
39%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
16%
Ishøj 1+ goals
76%
Ishøj 2+ goals
41%
Ishøj 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
48%
Ishøj (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Ishøj away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + Ishøj defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ishøj attack 1.31 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
36%
level
25%
Ishøj scores more
38%

Ishøj at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ishøj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
J. Moussa
46'
E. Wass← E. Wass
51'
O. Basse
52'
M. Azaquoun
60'
M. Al Atlassi
61'
L. Jensen← L. Jensen
61'
M. Bottker← M. Hansen
69'
M. Hansen
72'
M. Al Atlassi← S. Appiah
78'
M. Basse
84'
B. Masaad← B. Masaad
86'
R. Berner← R. Berner
89'
M. Juul← M. Juul
90+1'
M. Nykjaer← M. Nykjaer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nykobing FC vs Ishøj

Ishøj beat Nykobing FC 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 2, 2025.

Goals: J. Moussa (35'), M. Azaquoun (52'), M. Hansen (69').

The match was played at Lollands Bank Park in Nykøbing Falster.