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Nykobing FC vs HB Koge — 1. Division 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 1
HB Koge
HB Koge
4/9/20231. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 2Lollands Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Nykobing FC41%
×Draw23%
HB Koge36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.67
HB Koge
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 129 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
1.66
HB Koge
1.22

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.86
HB Koge
1.68

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
HB Koge+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

HB Koge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
64%
Nykobing FC or HB Koge
77%
Draw or HB Koge
59%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
21%
HB Koge wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
81%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
50%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
23%
HB Koge 1+ goals
79%
HB Koge 2+ goals
45%
HB Koge 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
54%
HB Koge (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.86 · 64 matches

HB Koge away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.68 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 1.66 + HB Koge defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

HB Koge attack 1.22 + Nykobing FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
41%
level
23%
HB Koge scores more
36%

Nykobing FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nykobing FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Nykobing FC 3–5 HB Koge

HB Koge beat Nykobing FC 5-3 in 1. Division on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Lollands Bank Park in Nykøbing Falster.