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Nykobing FC vs Fremad Amager — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
10/1/20232nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 9Lollands Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nykobing FC34%
×Draw27%
Fremad Amager39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.21
Fremad Amager
1.33

Fremad Amager creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
0.94
Fremad Amager
1.17

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.50
Fremad Amager
1.48

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

Fremad Amager →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
61%
Nykobing FC or Fremad Amager
73%
Draw or Fremad Amager
66%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
14%
Fremad Amager wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
70%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
34%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
12%
Fremad Amager 1+ goals
74%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
38%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
46%
Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
34%
level
27%
Fremad Amager scores more
39%

Fremad Amager at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nykobing FC vs Fremad Amager

Nykobing FC beat Fremad Amager 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Lollands Bank Park in Nykøbing Falster.