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Nykobing FC vs AB Copenhagen — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
D. Sidoel 16'
4/26/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 3Lollands Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Nykobing FC29%
×Draw25%
AB Copenhagen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nykobing FC
1.16
AB Copenhagen
1.52

AB Copenhagen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 76 away

creates per match

Nykobing FC
0.94
AB Copenhagen
1.54

allows per match

Nykobing FC
1.50
AB Copenhagen
1.37

finishing

Nykobing FC+0.00on par
AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nykobing FC ↓

AB Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nykobing FC or draw
54%
Nykobing FC or AB Copenhagen
75%
Draw or AB Copenhagen
71%

Winning margin

Nykobing FC wins by 2+
12%
AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Nykobing FC 1+ goals
69%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
32%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
11%
AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
78%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
45%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
39%
AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nykobing FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

AB Copenhagen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.37 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nykobing FC attack 0.94 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

AB Copenhagen attack 1.54 + Nykobing FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nykobing FC scores more
29%
level
25%
AB Copenhagen scores more
46%

AB Copenhagen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
D. Sidoel
90'
J. Pank
90'
J. Pank

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Nykobing FC 0–1 AB Copenhagen

AB Copenhagen beat Nykobing FC 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: D. Sidoel (16').

The match was played at Lollands Bank Park in Nykøbing Falster.