Nyiregyhaza 1–2 FK Košice: Result & Stats

Nyiregyhaza

1 – 2

FK Košice

7/18/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Nyiregyhaza32%

×Draw24%

FK Košice45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NyiregyhazaExpected goals in this matchFK Košice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.71

Nyiregyhaza

1.41

FK Košice

1.71

FK Košice creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

1.20

creates per match

1.52

1.90

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Nyiregyhaza

1.20

FK Košice

1.52

allows per match

Nyiregyhaza

1.90

FK Košice

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyiregyhaza+0.00on par

FK Košice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyiregyhaza ↓

FK Košice →

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Nyiregyhaza or draw

55%

Nyiregyhaza or FK Košice

76%

Draw or FK Košice

68%

Winning margin

Nyiregyhaza wins by 2+

14%

FK Košice wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Nyiregyhaza 1+ goals

76%

Nyiregyhaza 2+ goals

41%

Nyiregyhaza 3+ goals

17%

FK Košice 1+ goals

82%

FK Košice 2+ goals

51%

FK Košice 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Nyiregyhaza (draw refunded)

42%

FK Košice (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nyiregyhaza at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

FK Košice away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nyiregyhaza attack 1.20 + FK Košice defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

FK Košice attack 1.52 + Nyiregyhaza defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nyiregyhaza scores more

32%

level

24%

FK Košice scores more

45%

FK Košice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff