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Nybergsund vs Lørenskog — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Nybergsund
Nybergsund
CANC
14:00
Lørenskog
Lørenskog
8/22/20203. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 3Nybergsund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nybergsund25%
×Draw24%
Lørenskog51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nybergsund
1.10
Lørenskog
1.68

Lørenskog creates 53% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nybergsund
0.71
Lørenskog
1.50

allows per match

Nybergsund
1.86
Lørenskog
1.50

finishing

Nybergsund+0.00on par
Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nybergsund ↓

Lørenskog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nybergsund or draw
49%
Nybergsund or Lørenskog
76%
Draw or Lørenskog
75%

Winning margin

Nybergsund wins by 2+
9%
Lørenskog wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Nybergsund 1+ goals
67%
Nybergsund 2+ goals
30%
Nybergsund 3+ goals
10%
Lørenskog 1+ goals
81%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
50%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Nybergsund (draw refunded)
33%
Lørenskog (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nybergsund at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nybergsund attack 0.71 + Lørenskog defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lørenskog attack 1.50 + Nybergsund defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nybergsund scores more
25%
level
24%
Lørenskog scores more
51%

Lørenskog at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nybergsund host Lørenskog

August 22, 2020: Nybergsund take on Lørenskog in 3. Division - Girone 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nybergsund host Lørenskog at Nybergsund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.