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Nyasa Big Bullets vs TP Mazembe — CAF Champions League 2019

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
9/17/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundBingu National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets31%
×Draw32%
TP Mazembe37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.88
TP Mazembe
0.98

TP Mazembe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.80
TP Mazembe
0.57

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
1.40
TP Mazembe
0.95

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
63%
Nyasa Big Bullets or TP Mazembe
68%
Draw or TP Mazembe
69%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
11%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
59%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
22%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
6%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
62%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
26%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
46%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 0.80 + TP Mazembe defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

TP Mazembe attack 0.57 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
31%
level
32%
TP Mazembe scores more
37%

TP Mazembe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyasa Big Bullets vs TP Mazembe

TP Mazembe beat Nyasa Big Bullets 1-0 in CAF Champions League on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Bingu National Stadium in Lilongwe.