Nyasa Big Bullets 0–2 Simba: Result & Stats

Nyasa Big Bullets

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Simba

J. Bocco 81'

M. Phiri 30'

9/10/2022

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundBingu National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets27%

×Draw31%

Simba42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyasa Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchSimba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.11

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.83

Simba

1.11

Simba creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

0.80

creates per match

0.83

1.40

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.80

Simba

0.83

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.40

Simba

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Simba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw

58%

Nyasa Big Bullets or Simba

69%

Draw or Simba

73%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

9%

Simba wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

56%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

20%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

5%

Simba 1+ goals

67%

Simba 2+ goals

30%

Simba 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

39%

Simba (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Simba away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 0.80 + Simba defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Simba attack 0.83 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

27%

level

31%

Simba scores more

42%

Simba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

H. Kajoke← P. Mwaungulu

29'

30'

61'

61'

71'

H. Kabichi← F. Willard

73'

J. Bocco← M. Phiri

81'

J. Bocco

Nyasa

Simba

28

15

33

29

5

17

13

▼

Kanouté

19

Yassin

10

Sakho

25

⚽

▼

Phiri

38

▼

23

5

15

7

25

8

18

29

▼

Mwaungulu

10

Petro

31

▼

Willard

19

▼

Nkhoma

Manager: C. Pasuwa

29'▲H. Kajoke←▼P. Mwaungulu

29'▲M. Ngwira←▼L. Nkhoma

71'▲H. Kabichi←▼F. Willard

Nyasa Big Bullets substitutes

9Kajoke24Ngwira17Kabichi12Lungu21Mfune4Mpokera3Nyasulu13Fodya16Mkungula

Manager: J. Mgunda

61'▲E. Nyoni←▼S. Kanouté

61'▲P. Banda←▼K. Denis

73'▲J. Bocco←▼M. Phiri

Simba substitutes

18Nyoni11Banda22Bocco26Juma7Georgijević8Okwa27Okrah30Kakolanya32Kyombo