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Nyasa Big Bullets vs Rumphi United — Super League 2026

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rumphi United
Rumphi United
5/1/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets82%
×Draw13%
Rumphi United6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.70
Rumphi United
0.57

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 374% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.33
Rumphi United
0.40

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.74
Rumphi United
3.07

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
Rumphi United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Rumphi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
94%
Nyasa Big Bullets or Rumphi United
87%
Draw or Rumphi United
18%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
61%
Rumphi United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
93%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
75%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
50%
Rumphi United 1+ goals
43%
Rumphi United 2+ goals
11%
Rumphi United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
94%
Rumphi United (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Rumphi United away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Rumphi United defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.70

Rumphi United attack 0.40 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
82%
level
13%
Rumphi United scores more
6%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyasa Big Bullets vs Rumphi United

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Rumphi United 4-1 in Super League on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.