Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nyasa Big Bullets vs Red Lions — Super League 2026

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Red Lions
Red Lions
9/28/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets64%
×Draw22%
Red Lions15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
1.90
Red Lions
0.78

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 144% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 49 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.33
Red Lions
0.82

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.74
Red Lions
1.47

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
85%
Nyasa Big Bullets or Red Lions
78%
Draw or Red Lions
36%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
38%
Red Lions wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
85%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
56%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
29%
Red Lions 1+ goals
54%
Red Lions 2+ goals
18%
Red Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
81%
Red Lions (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Red Lions away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Red Lions defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.90

Red Lions attack 0.82 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
64%
level
22%
Red Lions scores more
15%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nyasa Big Bullets 3–1 Red Lions

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Red Lions 3-1 in Super League on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.