Nyasa Big Bullets 3–1 Moyale Barracks

Nyasa Big Bullets

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Moyale Barracks

5/6/2023

Super League · Round 3Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets64%

×Draw21%

Moyale Barracks15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyasa Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchMoyale Barracks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.80

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.92

Moyale Barracks

0.80

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 140% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 84 away

2.33

creates per match

0.86

0.74

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.33

Moyale Barracks

0.86

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.74

Moyale Barracks

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Moyale Barracks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw

85%

Nyasa Big Bullets or Moyale Barracks

79%

Draw or Moyale Barracks

36%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

38%

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

85%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

57%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

30%

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals

55%

Moyale Barracks 2+ goals

19%

Moyale Barracks 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

81%

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

64%

level

21%

Moyale Barracks scores more

15%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff