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Nyasa Big Bullets vs Karonga United — Super League 2026

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
5 – 0
Karonga United
Karonga United
7/21/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Kamuzu Stadium (Blantyre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets72%
×Draw19%
Karonga United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.04
Karonga United
0.57

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 258% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 83 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.67
Karonga United
0.80

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.33
Karonga United
1.42

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Karonga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
91%
Nyasa Big Bullets or Karonga United
81%
Draw or Karonga United
28%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
46%
Karonga United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
87%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
60%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
33%
Karonga United 1+ goals
43%
Karonga United 2+ goals
11%
Karonga United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
89%
Karonga United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.67 + Karonga United defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.04

Karonga United attack 0.80 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
72%
level
19%
Karonga United scores more
9%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nyasa Big Bullets 5–0 Karonga United

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Karonga United 5-0 in Super League on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium (Blantyre).