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Nyasa Big Bullets vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
12/7/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets57%
×Draw24%
Kamuzu Barracks19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
1.72
Kamuzu Barracks
0.87

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 98% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 81 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.33
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.74
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
81%
Nyasa Big Bullets or Kamuzu Barracks
76%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
43%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
32%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
82%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
51%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
25%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
58%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
22%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
75%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
57%
level
24%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
19%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nyasa Big Bullets 1–0 Kamuzu Barracks

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Kamuzu Barracks 1-0 in Super League on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.