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Nyasa Big Bullets vs Ekwendeni Hammers — Super League 2026

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
H. Kajoke 83'
A. Babatunde Adebare 62'
M. Mgwira 32'
S. Chiona 68'
4/2/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets64%
×Draw21%
Ekwendeni Hammers14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
1.92
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.77

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 149% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 70 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.27
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.84

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.71
Ekwendeni Hammers
1.57

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Ekwendeni Hammers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
86%
Nyasa Big Bullets or Ekwendeni Hammers
79%
Draw or Ekwendeni Hammers
36%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
39%
Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
85%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
57%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
30%
Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
54%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
18%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
82%
Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Ekwendeni Hammers away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.27 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 0.84 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
64%
level
21%
Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
14%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
M. Mgwira
62'
A. Babatunde Adebare
68'
S. Chiona
83'
H. Kajoke

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyasa Big Bullets vs Ekwendeni Hammers

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Ekwendeni Hammers 3-1 in Super League on April 2, 2022.

Goals: M. Mgwira (32'), A. Babatunde Adebare (62'), S. Chiona (68'), H. Kajoke (83').

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.