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Ekwendeni Hammers vs Nyasa Big Bullets — Super League 2026

Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
10/14/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers29%
×Draw32%
Nyasa Big Bullets40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekwendeni Hammers
0.84
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.05

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 25% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 79 away

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.11
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.23

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
0.87
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.57

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw
60%
Ekwendeni Hammers or Nyasa Big Bullets
68%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
71%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
9%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
57%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
21%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
5%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
65%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
28%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
42%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.84

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
29%
level
32%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
40%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ekwendeni Hammers 1–1 Nyasa Big Bullets

Ekwendeni Hammers and Nyasa Big Bullets drew 1-1 in Super League on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.