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Nyasa Big Bullets vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
5/18/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets69%
×Draw20%
Chitipa United11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
1.94
Chitipa United
0.61

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 218% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 65 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.33
Chitipa United
0.48

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.74
Chitipa United
1.54

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
89%
Nyasa Big Bullets or Chitipa United
80%
Draw or Chitipa United
31%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
43%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
86%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
58%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
30%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
46%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
13%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
86%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.94

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
69%
level
20%
Chitipa United scores more
11%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nyasa Big Bullets 3–0 Chitipa United

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Chitipa United 3-0 in Super League on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.