Nyasa Big Bullets 1–1 Be Forward Wanderers

Nyasa Big Bullets

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Be Forward Wanderers

5/4/2024

Super League · Round 4Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets48%

×Draw26%

Be Forward Wanderers26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyasa Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchBe Forward Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.00

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.47

Be Forward Wanderers

1.00

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 47% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 82 away

2.33

creates per match

1.26

0.74

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.33

Be Forward Wanderers

1.26

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.74

Be Forward Wanderers

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Be Forward Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw

74%

Nyasa Big Bullets or Be Forward Wanderers

74%

Draw or Be Forward Wanderers

52%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

24%

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

77%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

43%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

18%

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals

63%

Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals

26%

Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

65%

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Be Forward Wanderers away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.26 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

48%

level

26%

Be Forward Wanderers scores more

26%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff