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Nyasa Big Bullets vs Be Forward Wanderers — Super League 2026

Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
A. Mfune 84'
C. Idana 16'
V. Nyangulu 78'
3/19/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets47%
×Draw27%
Be Forward Wanderers26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyasa Big Bullets
1.42
Be Forward Wanderers
0.97

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 46% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 77 away

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
2.27
Be Forward Wanderers
1.23

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets
0.71
Be Forward Wanderers
0.57

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par
Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Be Forward Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw
74%
Nyasa Big Bullets or Be Forward Wanderers
73%
Draw or Be Forward Wanderers
53%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
23%
Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
76%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
41%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
17%
Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
62%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
25%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
65%
Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Be Forward Wanderers away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.27 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.23 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
47%
level
27%
Be Forward Wanderers scores more
26%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
C. Idana
78'
V. Nyangulu
84'
A. Mfune

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyasa Big Bullets vs Be Forward Wanderers

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Be Forward Wanderers 2-1 in Super League on March 19, 2022.

Goals: C. Idana (16'), V. Nyangulu (78'), A. Mfune (84').

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.