Nyasa Big Bullets 0–1 Bangwe All Stars

Nyasa Big Bullets

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bangwe All Stars

9/19/2024

Super League · Round 16Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets65%

×Draw21%

Bangwe All Stars14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyasa Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchBangwe All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.73

Nyasa Big Bullets

1.90

Bangwe All Stars

0.73

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 160% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 30 away

2.33

creates per match

0.73

0.74

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.33

Bangwe All Stars

0.73

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.74

Bangwe All Stars

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Bangwe All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw

86%

Nyasa Big Bullets or Bangwe All Stars

79%

Draw or Bangwe All Stars

35%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

39%

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

85%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

56%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

29%

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

52%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

17%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

83%

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

65%

level

21%

Bangwe All Stars scores more

14%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff