NWS Spirit 5–2 Mounties Wanderers: Result & Stats

NWS Spirit

FT

5 – 2

Mounties Wanderers

7/20/2022

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 22Christie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

NWS Spirit59%

×Draw20%

Mounties Wanderers21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NWS SpiritExpected goals in this matchMounties Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.25

NWS Spirit

2.21

Mounties Wanderers

1.25

NWS Spirit creates 77% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 50 away

2.35

creates per match

1.24

1.25

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

NWS Spirit

2.35

Mounties Wanderers

1.24

allows per match

NWS Spirit

1.25

Mounties Wanderers

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NWS Spirit+0.00on par

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NWS Spirit ↓

Mounties Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

NWS Spirit or draw

79%

NWS Spirit or Mounties Wanderers

80%

Draw or Mounties Wanderers

41%

Winning margin

NWS Spirit wins by 2+

37%

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

NWS Spirit 1+ goals

89%

NWS Spirit 2+ goals

65%

NWS Spirit 3+ goals

38%

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

71%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

36%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

NWS Spirit (draw refunded)

74%

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NWS Spirit at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NWS Spirit attack 2.35 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.21

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + NWS Spirit defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

NWS Spirit scores more

59%

level

20%

Mounties Wanderers scores more

21%

NWS Spirit at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "NWS Spirit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff